时间：2026年8月11日 上午9：00
地点：邵逸夫科学馆206会议室
题目：Growing Together, Feeling Ahead: Sticky Reference Frames in Perceived Mobility
内容摘要：Economic mobility is relative: under rational and frictionless updating, proportional growth in personal and reference-group incomes should leave perceived mobility unchanged. We develop a sticky-reference-frame account in which personal income changes are incorporated promptly, while reference-group growth is subject to information frictions. Using the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find that perceived status responds immediately to personal income growth, whereas its response to reference-group growth is delayed and non-monotonic. Equal proportional growth in both can therefore generate a temporary perception of upward mobility despite an unchanged relative position. We next examine how aggregate information, once salient, shapes prospective beliefs. In the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), recent provincial income growth predicts greater optimism about upward mobility over the next decade, consistent with the extrapolation of salient macroeconomic conditions. Together, the findings reveal a temporal asymmetry: aggregate growth enters retrospective mobility assessments with delay but, once salient, is projected into future expectations.
主讲人介绍:王琪，华南师范大学国际商学院特聘研究员，香港大学经济学博士。研究领域为行为经济学，信息经济学，应用微观理论，研究兴趣为探究非完全信息环境下，微观个体的认知过程与决策机制。
